In all the analysis and hand-wringing after the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election last November, journalists and public opinion pollsters received a lot of criticism. AAPOR, The American Association for Public Opinion Research, struck an ad hoc committee of experts, including one Canadian, Claire Durand of University of Montreal, to do some investigation. They looked for answers to two questions - did the polls fail, and if so, why?
Not surprisingly, the answers in this report, “An Evaluation of 2016 election polls in the U.S.” are complicated. It wasn’t just one factor, and given the number of provincial elections here in Canada and national elections abroad coming up, it is valuable reading.